SpaceX is raising $75B at a $1.75T cap. On $11B in Rev Largest IPO in history. Today we’re diving into how this thing is worth $2T.

+ I want to see pretty financials and ugly filings

I've now analyzed 200 public earnings reports. One trend I see across all of them is that the prettier the presentation, usually the worse the business performance is. There's always an inverse correlation between the financial and the performance outcome of the company and how pretty the deck and the presentation look.

And SpaceX S-1 has my spidey senses tingling. This looks more like a sci-fi novella than an S-1, where you need to scroll fifteen pages through the pictures of rockets and moons and constellations to get to the actual financials.

I’m not joking this looks like a NASA ad.

When a business actually has great performance, they get straight to the numbers vs. the narrative of what they're trying to sell you.

This screams narrative to cover up numbers.

Note: As always, none of what follows is legal, tax, investing, financial, or any other sort of advice. And I was never here 😉.

SpaceX (Elon’s Space project that’s turned into a bag of Hot VC category bizs) wants $1.75T for a $11B biz that lost $5B last year. 

That’s a 60x forward looking Rev multiple!

There’s no sane way to justify this valuation based on the math or finances or even TAM really.

FY2025 Financial Statements (YoY Comparison)

Source: SpaceX S-1 Filing -- SEC EDGAR, filed May 20, 2026

The most insane part of this raise. Unless SpaceX also raises debt after the IPO they’ll only have 18-24 of cash to support their current burn levels.

So many Operational bets need to go right for this to work. The stars can align here, but this is priced past perfection.

Today, you’re paying for them executing their plan at 95% confidence, when really it has 2% odds of success.

Do your own research, but needless to say I won’t be buying at IPO Price.

Founded:

Aha Moment:

Growth:

Model:

Where We Are Now:

If you haven’t read Walter Isaacson's Biography on Elon. I highly recommend it. Most of the book covers the SpaceX period of his life. Despite what you think about the man it’s a fascinating read.

I have to preface this whole newsletter that this is completely made up math that I honestly needed to do a bit of mental backflipping to figure out how this thing could possibly be worth $2T by 2030. 

I don’t believe in any of these numbers and PLEASE don’t make any investment advice based on them.

I’m legitimately trying to figure out how the financials of a modern conglomerate could possibly be worth this much/why someone would want to pay 60x forward looking Rev for it now.

Other than Elon is asking for the most amount of money he thinks he can get away with.

All 2030 revenue figures are bull-case estimates, not guidance. Gross Profit derived at ~$9.1B (formula: Op Loss + R&D + SG&A + Restructuring); not separately disclosed in S-1 summary. Segment-level margins not separately reported.

These are the potential Values at $2T for how all 3 play together. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but it’s the most likely path I see.

Here are SpaceX’s 4 core biz model and the bull case on how this things grows into a biz worth $2T.

The first sales pitch you need to believe is that Starlink (Satellite powered internet biz) will become a Top 3 Telco + Wireless carrier.

Today Starlink is the only real profitable biz. 

70% of their 10m subs are international and they have leading margins for the category.

But T-Mobile has 127m customers w/ $80B in Rev and trades at 3x Rev.  

The monster bet is Starlink will:

It is possible/the most likely to happen (before we get into Space satellites & Sci-fi pitches)?

Yes, but the execution has to be flawless. 

This also assumes there will be 0 competition. 

Takeaway: How fast can SpaceX outrun all the competition = multiple.

The 2nd major sales pitch you need to buy is that Starship will torch the unit economics for all other space providers.

The Space segment made billions LY but still lost $657M from investments in Starship.

This is the first leap of faith in this S1. The entire space profile will rest on them being able to consistently launch Starship (new rocket model) by the end of the year. As of now there have been 0 effective launches of this model.

SpaceX already has 80%+ of global mass to orbit (22,800kg). No one is close today, but everyone is chasing them.

If Starship works, it fundamentally changes the unit economics. If it reduces the $/KG from $2.5k -> $200.

For Context:

In theory this opens up new biz models: 

This can scale to a $20B/yr biz, but before we start inventing new TAMs for markets that don’t exist, how much of a premium should SpaceX get vs. Boeing which trades @ 4x on $24B in current Rev?

Takeaway: Do you believe the new business models are real in < 5 years.

I just want to start by saying I hate the Neocloud biz model. It’s an expensive, debt-ridden commercial real estate biz that will get rug pulled when better technology/Moore’s law makes building AI cheaper + faster.

But this is the backbone of the entire strategy now that Elon wanted to write off his terrible Twitter investment.

So, the 3rd massive sales pitch you have to believe.

This biz will become THE data center biz On & Off world. 

For context the AI biz accounted for 17% of FY2025 Rev and 90% of losses. They’ve already spent $7.7B in AI capex (pacing to $30B by YE).

The Anthropic deal alone puts them at a $15B run rate.

If they can turn that into stealing some of Coreweave’s $99B in commits this can be a run away growth model, before we get to space.

Outside of the LLMs and Hyperscales:

I see a clear path where this becomes a $50B+ biz unit over 5-10 yrs, but how much is that really worth? Coreweave trades at 10x Rev. 

+ You need to believe this is a viable biz over 10-15 years. 

With Elon scorching the earth with OpenAI, who are the customers big enough to spend enough for this to grow to $15B in 5 years?

Is it possible? Yes. But SO many things need to go right in such a short amount of time.

Takeaway: Colossus is real. The question is how quickly can they sell into scale.

4) Cursor becomes a legit AI coding tool.

The 4th bet you need to believe is that Elon can cram enough savings + value into Grok + Cursor on top of Colossus rails to turn Cursor into a legit competitor against ChatGPT coding agent & Claude.

This is my favorite move out of the whole circus. 

SpaceX can acquire Cursor for $60B in an all stock deal after IPO (<3% dilution @ $2T).

If SpaceX can make Cursor + Grok a legit coding agent the market is pricing those tools at $1T.

Grok ranks well, but no one uses it. Cursor has fallen very far behind.

But there’s a brilliant verticalization, where:

The massive benefits:

It feels like Elon couldn’t raise any more private money for either biz so he tacked on the AI biz because SpaceX was going public. 

This is now the out of the money options to make the AI biz work. This was x.AI’s path to go public.

But if this bet works out he should break back out the AI biz into its own $1T hyperscaler to go head to head w/ Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

Takeaway: Going vertical might win the AI wars.

Other than “Elon is the messiah” I don’t understand where the market is coming from here.

While the market is melting down because AI is making the future cash flows of all biz models = 0, we’re willing to give THE most aggressive forward looking valuation to an early, unprofitable, not well capitalized conglomerate that doesn’t have a money printer in any part of the biz.

Starlink is generating $4B, but if they have to dump all the money into Starship (how they plan to get Satellites into space) it isn’t a money printer yet.

What I’m most confused by is why isn’t this getting hammered by the conglomerate tax. We just went through a decade of Conglomerates winding down because they don’t create more shareholder value (GE, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft). 

Because we’re talking about new industries, do they all of the sudden make sense?

Don’t get me wrong. I fully believe they’ll raise the $75B and this thing will go up on IPO day.

But what happens in 9 months when all the data centers aren’t online because of problem X, and Starship deployment gets pushed to 2028? I’m not saying that will happen, but there are 4 different biz units where anything could go wrong.

And it’s priced like this future has already happened.

Which leads me with the biggest question…

What financial performance does it need in 5 years to be worth more than $2T?